Source code for dowhy.gcm.independence_test.regression

""" Regression based (conditional) independence test. Testing independence via regression, i.e. if a variable has
information about another variable, then they are dependent.
"""
from typing import Callable, List, Optional, Union

import numpy as np
from sklearn.kernel_approximation import Nystroem
from sklearn.preprocessing import scale

from dowhy.gcm.stats import estimate_ftest_pvalue, quantile_based_fwer
from dowhy.gcm.util.general import apply_one_hot_encoding, fit_one_hot_encoders, shape_into_2d


[docs]def regression_based( X: np.ndarray, Y: np.ndarray, Z: Optional[np.ndarray] = None, num_components_all_inputs: int = 40, num_runs: int = 20, p_value_adjust_func: Callable[[Union[np.ndarray, List[float]]], float] = quantile_based_fwer, f_test_samples_ratio: Optional[float] = 0.3, max_samples_per_run: int = 10000, ) -> float: """The main idea is that if X and Y are dependent, then X should help in predicting Y. If there is no dependency, then X should not help. When Z is given, the idea remains the same, but here X and Y are conditionally independent given Z if X does not help in predicting Y when knowing Z. This is, X has not additional information about Y given Z. In the pairwise case (Z is not given), the performances (in terms of squared error) between predicting Y based on X and predicting Y by returning its mean (the best estimator without any inputs) are compared. Note that categorical inputs are transformed via the sklearn one-hot-encoder. Here, we use the :class:`sklearn.kernel_approximation.Nystroem` approach to approximate a kernel map of the inputs that serves as new input features. These new features allow to model complex non-linear relationships. In case of categorical data, we first apply an one-hot-encoding and then map it into the kernel feature space. Afterwards, we use linear regression as a prediction model based on the non-linear input features. The idea is then the same as in Granger causality, where we apply a f-test to see if the additional input features significantly help in predicting the target or not. Note: As compared to :func:`~dowhy.gcm.kernel_based`, this method is quite fast and provides reasonably well results. However, there are types of dependencies that this test cannot detect. For instance, if X determines the variance of Y, then this cannot be captured. For these more complex dependencies, consider using the :func:`~dowhy.gcm.kernel_based` independence test instead. This test is motivated by Granger causality, the approx_kernel_based test and the following paper: K Chalupka, P Perona, F. Eberhardt. *Fast Conditional Independence Test for Vector Variables with Large Sample Sizes*. arXiv:1804.02747, 2018. :param X: Input data for X. :param Y: Input data for Y. :param Z: Input data for Z. The set of variables to (optionally) condition on. :param num_components_all_inputs: Number of kernel features when combining X and Z. If Z is not given, it will be replaced with an empty array. If Z is given, half of the number is used to generate features for Z. :param num_runs: Number of runs. This equals the number of estimated p-values, which get adjusted by the p_value_adjust_func. :param p_value_adjust_func: A callable that expects a numpy array of multiple p-values and returns one p-value. This is typically used a family wise error rate control method. :param f_test_samples_ratio: Ratio for splitting the data into test and training data sets for calculating the f-statistic. A ratio of 0.3 means that 30% of the samples are used for the f-test (test samples) and 70% are used for training the prediction model (training samples). If set to None, training and test data set are the same, which could help in settings where only a few samples are available. :param max_samples_per_run: Maximum number of samples used per run. :return: The p-value for the null hypothesis that X and Y are independent given Z. If Z is not given, then for the hypothesis that X and Y are independent. """ if num_components_all_inputs < 2: raise ValueError( "Need at least two components for all inputs, but only %d were given!" % num_components_all_inputs ) X, Y = shape_into_2d(X, Y) X = scale(apply_one_hot_encoding(X, fit_one_hot_encoders(X))) Y = scale(apply_one_hot_encoding(Y, fit_one_hot_encoders(Y))) if Z is not None: Z = shape_into_2d(Z) Z = scale(apply_one_hot_encoding(Z, fit_one_hot_encoders(Z))) org_X = X org_Y = Y org_Z = Z all_p_values = [] for _ in range(num_runs): if X.shape[0] > max_samples_per_run: random_indices = np.random.choice(X.shape[0], max_samples_per_run, replace=False) X = org_X[random_indices] Y = org_Y[random_indices] if org_Z is not None: Z = org_Z[random_indices] if Z is not None: all_inputs = Nystroem(n_components=num_components_all_inputs).fit_transform(np.column_stack([X, Z])) input_Z = Nystroem(n_components=num_components_all_inputs // 2).fit_transform(Z) else: all_inputs = Nystroem(n_components=num_components_all_inputs).fit_transform(X) input_Z = np.array([]).reshape(1, -1) if f_test_samples_ratio is not None: num_f_test_samples = int(all_inputs.shape[0] * f_test_samples_ratio) indices_random_order = np.random.choice(all_inputs.shape[0], all_inputs.shape[0], replace=False) training_indices = indices_random_order[num_f_test_samples:] test_indices = indices_random_order[:num_f_test_samples] else: training_indices = np.arange(0, all_inputs.shape[0]) test_indices = training_indices all_p_values.append( estimate_ftest_pvalue( all_inputs[training_indices], input_Z[training_indices], Y[training_indices], all_inputs[test_indices], input_Z[test_indices], Y[test_indices], ) ) return p_value_adjust_func(all_p_values)